Europe: The Only Pillar Of Strength Currently

Published 04/15/2015, 08:28 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM


Global indicators have disappointed with Europe being the only pillar of strength. Data in US and China has been weak lately. The US has so far failed to see a boost from the big oil price decline, although there are some tentative signs of recovery in the Markit PMIs. China has seen its weakest growth since 2009 in recent months.

We see more downside risk in US ISM in the short term followed by recovery over the summer. Euro area PMIs are set to rise a bit further as signalled by leading indicators. In China, we look for stabilisation and bottoming out during the summer on the back of more policy stimulus.

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