The euro remains stuck in tight range against the dollar as markets are awaiting ECB rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to announce easing measures to counter the weakening inflation outlook. That would likely including cutting of the three interest rates, including lowering the main refinancing rate from 0.25% to 0.05%, and the deposit rate into negative territory. There would also be non-conventional measures like new LTROs and pausing of sterilization of crisis-area bond purchase. Large scale quantitative easing is not likely for this meeting, but markets will look for clues on ECB's stance on it and to want extent the preparation works were done. The central ECB would also release new staff projections which would provide hints on the chance of even further stimulus. The BoE will likely hold rates unchanged at 0.50% and keep the asset purchase size at GBP 375b. A brief statement would be released and the announcement would likely be a non-event.
Fed released the Beige Book economic report overnight, which covered the period from April through mid-May. The reported showed that economic activities expanded at moderate to modest pace across all the 12 districts. Manufacturing activity expanded in all districts and rate in several districts also increased. Consumer spending was moderately strong and non-financial services improved generally. Lending activity increased in all districts too, with robust loan demand. Meanwhile, residential real estate was mixed and commercial real estate was stronger. Regarding the labor market, it's generally improved with most districts reporting modest gains. Overall, the Beige Book report showed that the economy has rebounded from the impact of the severe winter weather.
The BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1% in June but acknowledged that headline inflation has risen back to target 'sooner than anticipated' while core 'has drifted up slightly'. Yet, it also warned of the downside risks stemming from slowdown in global economic growth. Specifically, the central bank indicated that growth in the US, its largest trading partner, may not be as strong as expected. On the monetary policy outlook, policymakers reiterated that 'the timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new information influences the balance of risks'.
On the data front, Australian trade balance unexpectedly turned AUD -122m deficit in April. Eurozone will release retail PMI and retail sales. US will release challenger job cuts, jobless claims. Canada will release building permits and Ivey PMI.