The euro is soft against most major currencies, except the yen and swiss franc, as markets await ECB rate decision and press conference. Economists generally expect the central bank to hold interest rates unchanged at 0.25% as February inflation data held above expectation. But the opinions were not one-sided given that, CPI at 0.8% yoy is way below the ECB's target of 2%. Meanwhile, there are speculations that the ECB could instead opt to loosen lending condition. Also, the governing council will release updated staff projections that stretch into 2016. Additionally, ECB president Draghi had mentioned that there will be a "very significant change in our analysis". Technically, Euro is staying near term bullish against dollar, and yen. However, the outlook against Sterling is rather unclear even though EUR/GBP is staying above a key support level at 0.8164. The EUR/AUD, on the other hand, looks set to head lower. BoE will also release rate decision today but will likely stand pat and just release a brief statement.
Fed Chair Yellen said that the US economy "continues to operate considerable short of" the mandate of stable inflation and full employment. She pledged to "achieve the very important goals Congress has assigned to the Federal Reserve." Released overnight, Fed's Beige Book economic reported noted that most districts reported "modest to moderate" improvement in levels of activity. Meanwhile, “the outlook among most districts remained optimistic.” Much of the weakness, including retail sales, production etc was attributed to the "severe winter weather".
Yesterday, As expected the BOC left the overnight rate unchanged at 1% for another meeting. Although the central bank acknowledged that economic growth in 4Q13 came in slightly higher than expected and inflation has shown signs of picking up, it decided to leave it growth outlook unchanged for now. It appears likely that policymakers would stand on the sideline for the rest of the year before slowing adopting a less accommodative stance early next year. The loonie climbed moderately as policymakers less pessimistic about the inflation outlook. More in BOC Maintained the Status Quo, Less Concerned about Disinflation.
Australian dollar jumps sharply today on better than expected economic data. Retail sales rose 1.2% mom in January versus expectation of 0.5% mom. Trade surplus widened sharply to AUD 1.43b in January versus expectation of AUD 0.11b. Technically, AUD/USD breaks through a near term falling channel today and is likely heading back to 0.9080/5 key near term resistance zone. EUR/AUD's break of 1.5248 minor support today also suggests that the corrective recovery from 1.4987 has completed at 1.5499. Thus, EUR/AUD is likely heading back to 1.5 psychological level.
Looking ahead, other than BoE and ECB rate decision, Germany will release factory orders in European session. US will release non-farm productivity, jobless claims and factory orders. Canada will release building permits and Ivey PMI.