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Euro Finds Support Despite Talks Of IMF Greek Bailout Suspension

Published 06/20/2013, 08:37 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

So after days of waiting and holding longs some minor follow through highlighted our initial turning point on Friday, at least in the Pound with the Euro close but not quite there yet.
Following Thursday's aggressive moves, we were waiting to see if the order book shaped up for follow through and we got some good early signs on Friday, the key being Retail Traders buying the moves lower in order to play the range. However, the full turn stalled as we saw more selling towards the close.
We expected to see some profit taking Saturday and a potential minor bounce in most crosses.

EUR/USD
The euro managed to push lower again on Friday during the London session (really expected) but found some support later in the day, despite talks of issues with the IMF withdrawing money from Greece.
Given the aggressive mid week moves we are really looking to position ourselves short; a bounce early next week could open the door. The key is whether we see speculators buying the bounce or shorting.

$EURUSD (240 Min) _ $EURUSD (Daily)  21_06_2013

$EURUSD (Daily)  23_01_2013 - 21_06_2013
GBP/USD
Unlike the Euro we saw some real progress in the order book for the Pound, which we would now like to see continue and progress.
The pound switched from Long positions to shorts, although we managed to book some profit it obviously wasn't as much as we had initially hoped.
We expect the pair to bounce but struggle with the 200 day moving average and turn lower again. A break of recent highs or switch in order book would negate our recent bias.
$GBPUSD (240 Min) _ $GBPUSD (Daily)  21_06_2013

$GBPUSD (Daily)  29_01_2013 - 21_06_2013
AUD/USD
Having fallen off of a cliff the Aussie found some support on Friday, and started chopping sideways. If we do finally close some of the long positions and find some Retail Sellers, we could see a push higher.
$AUDUSD (240 Min) _ $AUDUSD (Daily)  21_06_2013
$AUDUSD (Daily)  01_02_2013 - 21_06_2013
USD/CHF
Given the USD strength over the past sessions, it is somewhat surprising to see such and aggressive price rejection of the 200 day SMA on the daily chart in this pair.
$USDCHF (Daily)  01_02_2013 - 21_06_2013
What was also slightly surprising was the Retail Positioning given the wider moves across all markets. Retail Traders have aggressively bought this pair, which has resulted in a rather interesting correction.
With the order book at all time highs we could see some further buying, although this is likely to be limited and therefore downside risk moves in this pair are likely to be short lived. The order book points to further sideways chop or a leg higher.
$USDCHF (240 Min) _ $USDCHF (Daily)  21_06_2013
EUR/AUD
This pair was at extremes in the order book, with everyone longing this pair. With the order book positioned as it is, we would suggest a correctional move is likely.
$EURAUD (240 Min) _ $EURAUD (Daily)  21_06_2013

$EURAUD (Daily)  11_02_2013 - 21_06_2013



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