Euro area periphery data have shown great improvement, and in line with that sovereign spreads have tightened.
The macroeconomic picture should continue to improve as suggested by soft indicators in most of the countries. Hard data also show signs of improvement and generally confirm the picture from soft data. In combination with the ECB having an easing bias mainly due to low inflation in the euro area, this is likely to underpin further spread compression.
We look for a continued gradual improvement in data helped by the global recovery.
The return of confidence is expected to result in a slow recovery in domestic private sector demand next year. In our view there is an upside risk to growth in the periphery, as we expect pent-up demand in investments and durable consumer goods to boost growth. The short-term outlook seems less challenging than it has been for a long time and the widespread improvement in economic sentiment appears more robust.
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