- EUR/JPY struggles to jump above its recent high
- Momentum oscillators look overstretched
EUR/JPY skyrocketed to a fresh multi-year high of 174.60 in the previous week but is currently hovering slightly below this level, with the technical oscillators suggesting an overstretched market. The RSI is trying to cross the 70 level to the downside, while the MACD is weakening its positive momentum above its trigger and zero lines.
Should the pair stretch south, the previous peak of 171.55 could provide immediate support near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), as well as ahead of the 170.80 level. A significant step lower could bring bearish sentiment into play, sending the price probably towards the 50-day SMA at 169.70 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 153.20 to 174.60 at 169.50, which stands near the uptrend line.
On the flip side, another upturn may require the pair to retest the 174.60 barricade before opening the way to fresh uncharted levels such as 175.00 and 176.00.
To summarize, EUR/JPY has climbed to new levels since the euro’s inception, indicating a strongly positive outlook in the long term. A decline beneath the uptrend line and, more importantly, below the 200-day SMA at 163.23, could switch the outlook to bearish.