Throughout the first half of February the euro enjoyed a solid move higher moving from support around 1.35 up to test the key level at 1.37. It was able to move through the 1.37 level before consolidating and spending the best part of the last couple of weeks resting on support at that level. After recently falling sharply through the key 1.37 level and reaching a two week low in the process, the euro finished out last week surging higher to above 1.38 and a new high for 2014. To finish out January the euro continued its decline and moved to a two month low touching below the support level at 1.35. For the last couple of months the euro has generally steadied and established a trading range roughly between 1.3550 and the recent resistance level at 1.38, however to finish out several weeks ago the euro broke down through the support level at 1.3550. The 1.3550 level has become a key level over recent times and a couple of weeks ago the euro sprung off it to a two week high at the resistance level at 1.37 where it has spent several days consolidating before dropping sharply back to the key 1.3550 level again. After placing some pressure on the resistance level at 1.38 several weeks ago, the euro has since fallen sharply down to its lowest level in two months.
Through November the euro enjoyed a solid move higher which saw it return to a wall of resistance at 1.38 and in doing so move to a then six week high. In the few days afterwards the euro challenged the 1.38 resistance level again before being turned away yet again. In mid November the euro did well to bounce strongly off support at 1.34 and recover the lost ground from the previous couple of days which saw it fall from the resistance level around 1.3550. This was after a few weeks which saw it move steadily higher from a support level at 1.33 back up to a three week high just above 1.3550. Over the last few months 1.3550 has been a key level.
Towards the end of October the euro enjoyed a strong surge higher to move through to its highest level in nearly two years just above 1.38 before spending that week content to consolidate around this level. Over the following three weeks it fell heavily down to a support level at 1.33 before recovering well. It moved quite well throughout the middle of October after breaking higher from its sideways range. For the month leading up to that, the euro traded within a narrow range between 1.3450 and 1.3650 before the range narrowed down to between 1.35 and 1.36. The former level of 1.35 was strongly tested a few weeks ago and has resurfaced as a significant level presently.
The 18-member single currency has maintained a hold above the psychological €1.37 level following the better German January Retail Sales data and even managed to surge to a new 2014 high €1.3808 (soon to be broken) after this months euro-zone advance CPI data came in above expectations. German January retail sales jumped +2.5% from the previous month in adjusted terms, more than erasing the December dip (-2.1%). For Germany, low inflation, coupled with rising employment and rising income growth are the right ingredients for increased consumer consumption in Q1. Most of Germanys growth has been in the export sector, but with an increase in domestic consumer demand Q1 is looking good for the euro-zones most dominant economy, this is also reflected in national consumer confidence levels at seven-year highs. All Draghi and fellow members require is that the regions potential hot spots continue to chip away and add to the bottom line.
EUR/USD Daily Chart " title="EUR/USD Daily Chart " width="474" height="235"> 
EUR/USD 4 Hourly Chart" title="EUR/USD 4 Hourly Chart" width="474" height="231">
EUR/USD March 2 at 22:05 GMT 1.3770 H:1.3802 L: 1.3756
EUR/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.3700 | 1.3500 | 1.3400 | 1.3800 | --- | --- |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the euro is easing back from the resistance level at 1.38 after finishing last week surging up there strongly. Current range: just above 1.38 around 1.3710.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1.3700, 1.3500 and 1.3400.
• Above: 1.3800.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the EUR/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The EUR/USD long position ratio has moved well back to down below 20% as the euro has surged back to above the key 1.38 level. The trader sentiment remains heavily in favour of short positions.
Economic Releases
- 00:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (Feb)
- 01:00 CN Non-manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 01:45 CN HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 05:00 JP Vehicle Sales (YoY) (Feb)
- 08:58 EU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 09:28 UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 13:30 CA Industrial Product Price (MoM) (Jan)
- 13:30 CA Raw Material Price Index (Jan)
- 13:58 US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 14:00 EU ECB President Draghi's Speech
- 15:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jan)
- 23:50 JP Monetary Base (YoY) (Feb)