The 60-minute chart of the EUR/USD is close to the bottom of the February pullback to around 1.1100. That was the start of the wedge rally that ended last week. I wrote at the time that the odds were that there would be a 2 legged pullback that lasted 10 or more bars on the 240-minute chart (the biggest time frame that shows the wedge top). The 60-minute chart has pullback for more than the minimum number of bars, but it has had only one leg down, there is no clear bottom yet, and there is still room to the 1.1100 target.
The EUR/USD has been sideways for 2 days. When there is a tight trading range in an oversold bear trend, like on the 60-minute chart, it is often the final bear flag. This means that a bear breakout usually does not fall far before it is bought and there is then a rally. The selloff was strong enough so that a rally will probably be sold and there will then be a test back down to the low of the 60-minute bear trend. A bear rally often reaches 50%.
If the rally begins today or tomorrow, a 50% bounce would be around 1.2500. The bears would look to sell it, hoping to form a head and shoulders top after the wedge top. The rally after a wedge top often tries to convert the pattern into a hear and shoulders top, with the 2nd push up in the wedge becoming the left shoulder.
While it is possible for the 60-minute bear trend to continue indefinitely, the channel down has been tight. That is unsustainable and therefore climactic. This increases the chance of a bounce coming soon, like today or tomorrow. The tight trading range of the past 2 days is sloped down slightly and it is therefore also a weak bear channel. Look at what has been happening with each new low for 2 days. Traders have been buying each one. Bears are taking profits on breakouts to new lows, instead of selling the breakouts. Bulls are buying the new lows because they are confident that the EUR/USD will not fall too far near-term. This price action is a sign that the selling might be drying up at this price level and that there might have to be a rally to reach a price where traders are more willing to sell.
The EUR/USD has been in a bear trend on the 5-minute chart in the European session, but it has fallen only about 80 pips in 6 hours, which is not much. The NYSE opens in 15 minutes and the EUR/USD is at the bottom of the range. If there is a bear breakout, the 2-day trading range will likely be a magnet and the breakout will probably not fall far before it is bought. That could be the start of a 2 – 3 day weak rally to a lower high on the 60-minute chart, which is likely to begin this week. Less likely, the 60-minute tight bear channel will continue for several more days.