EUR/USD continues its firm upward movement, provoked by Draghi's Thursday ECB speech. The pair is now trading around $1.3380.
The long-term picture remains positive for the single currency. On Friday the pair closed above the important $1.3310 resistance (now support). Today the euro opened the week with a gap up and touched $1.3404. The pair is now trading above the 200-week EMA ($1.3346) and the 50-month EMA ($1.3370).
The next resistance lies at $1.3480 (50% Fibo, 2012 highs). A few days ago this level seemed hard to reach, but the situation has changed quickly. A fix above the $1.3500 hurdle would confirm the inverse “head-and-shoulders” pattern and signal that the pair has formed a bottom at $1.2040.
However, on the daily and hourly chart one may see a bullish MACD divergence. The euro is overbought. On a daily chart the pair is above the upper Bollinger line ($13360). Moreover, the Monday bullish gap remains open. Therefore, we expect a correction to $1.3310 in the near term.
Support: $1.3360, $1.3330, $1.3310, $1.3300, $1.3250
Resistance: $1.3400, $1.3480, $1.3500