EURUSD failed just below resistance at 1.3625/30 at 1.3612. We have rallied further than I would have expected as we crawl along the bottom of an upward sloping trend line going back to July but the problem is we cannot close above this line & the failure to beat 1.3625 should start to add pressure. We are overbought on the daily chart so only a close above 1.3630 is now seen as positive. Other wise risks of a sell off are increasing.
Below 1.3560 is more negative & targets 1.3540/35. If we continue lower look for good support for the day at 1.3500/90 which should hold the downside. Bulls require a break & a close above 1.3625/30. Only then can we try for 1.3685/90.
Weekly outlook: 1.3625/30 should determine direction in to the end of the week. Failure to break & close above can target 1.3425/15 next week. However above 1.3625/30 can take us to 1.3715/20 & may be as far as October highs at 1.3830.