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EUR/USD Going Below Parity

Published 12/24/2016, 05:19 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:32 AM
EUR/USD
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DX
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What? Euro is going to be cheaper than USD?

This is a likely scenario. It could take time, but I'm expecting EUR/USD to have the next low at $0.85-$0.95 area. Look at the chart.

EUR/USD Monthly Chart

Symmetry everywhere

As you can see on this chart, most EUR/USD crashes since 2008 had the same percentage of price falling: between 20% and 25%. This is the new nature of euro. The most recent EUR/USD downtrend correction's high was at around $1.16, therefore, we can subtract 20-25% from that price and get the new possible target: $0.85-$0.95 range. This is where the euro is going to fall to within the next 1-2 years,or even earlier.

$0.85-$0.95 range support already confirmed in early 2000s

As you can see on the chart above, euro already traded in that range in the early 2000s and formed a pretty good support. So for now I'm not expecting the euro's price to fall below that range.

If EUR/USD > $1.16, then downtrend is cancelled

In the (unlikely) case that the EUR/USD starts going up on high speed right now, breaks the $1.16 resistance and holds there, then my bearish scenario is cancelled.

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