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EUR/USD In Very Short-Term Downtrend

Published 07/10/2012, 09:17 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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EUR/USD: 1.2291

Very Short-Term Trend:

Downtrend

Outlook:
EUR/USD has consolidated just above the recent lows and it seems it is preparing for the next leg lower. ideally, this leg lower should begin today and will bring weakness twd 1.2145. That bearish outlook is valid as long as the prices stay below the important 1.2345 Fibonacci level. So, the short side is still favored. Only a move above 1.2345 will makes me neutral here as it will risk a larger recovery toward 1.2440....

Strategy: Holding short from 1.2390 is favored. Stop=1.2370. Target=1.2150 
18

GBP/USD: 1.5506

Very Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend

Outlook:
GBP/USD has traded sideways since our last update but that does not change the overall picture at all. As long as the prices hold below the 1.5550 level the bears are in control and the current consolidation is seen as a temporary pause only within the ongoing downtrend from the early July top. Thus, I remain bearish and expect weakness twd 1.5260 Fibo level eventually.
On the upside, a break abv 1.5550 will negate this view and will sugges larger recovery twd 1.5620 is likely under way... 

Strategy: Holding short from 1.5695 is favored. Stop=1.5555.  

USD/JPY: 79.28

Very Short-Term Trend: sideways

Outlook:
USD has declined since our yesterday's udpate but so far the market remains in its tight range between 79.10 and 80.10. Right now the pressure is on the downside though and there is a greater risk for a downside break. But until such a break is seen, it is more reasonalbe to assume that the current consolidation will remain intact. And that means, some kind of a recovery can be expected later today. If a break below 79.10 will be a bearish sign that will suggest weakness towards 78.05 level...

Strategy: Stay out.

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