EUR/USD At 1.2579, In Short-Term Uptrend

1.2579

Very Short-Term Trend: Weak uptrend

Outlook: In a quiet and choppy trade EUR moved briefly abv 1.2615 yesterday and stopped out our short position with a marginal loss. Now, the hourly chart is mostly neutral to slightly positive (due to the fact that the prices are abv the 100-hour moving average). But my feeling is EUR will start a new leg down from here. Of course, it is not a good idea to trade on feelings, so I prefer to stay out under the current conditions. Firm and sustained trading below 1.2550 however, will be a strong sign that the bears have taken control here again....

Strategy: Stay out.

GBP/USD: 1.5642

Very Short-Term Trend: Downtrend

Outlook:
The Triangle scenario discussed in yesterday's update has played out well and GBP is now in downtrend vs USD on the hourly chart. I expect further weakness today twd the next important support level at 1.5545/40. Below this support will confirm that the larger degree downtrend on daily chart has likely resumed and strong weakness should follow, initially twd 1.5260.
On the upside, only abv 1.5710/20 negates, risks rise twd 1.5800...

Strategy: Holding short from 1.5695 is favored. Stop=1.5725. 

USD/JPY: 79.77

Very Short-Term Trend: Sideways

Outlook: USD/JPY continues to trade sideways between 79.20 and 80.00 but a break out of this range is likely to occur soon (but most likely not today due to fact that U.S. market is closed). I personally favor the upside here and that's reflected in the mentioned strategy below. A move above 80.00 should be enough to signal that a rally toward 83.80 level has begun....

Strategy: Longs favored on break of 80.02. Stop=50 pts.  

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