Fundamentally, the U.S. Dollar is bullish on the longer-term charts, but short-term developments in the U.S. financial markets are likely to produce downside pressure. Technically, the U.S. Dollar is beginning to show signs of being overbought after a strong rally against all the major currencies.
EUR USD traders could be looking at a short-term bottom driven by technical factors and the anticipation of more negative banking issues. The charts indicate that if U.S. financial institutions remain under pressure because of the credit crisis, this market may go on a full retracement of the recent break to 1.5427.
The Closing Price Reversal Bottom at 1.4814 has been confirmed.
If an uptrend begins to develop from this bottom, then look for the start of a retracement to 1.5426 to 1.5570.
The first area that will provide a selling opportunity is 1.5158.
PATTERN
Main Trend: Down
Main Trend Top: 1.5768 (07-28-08)
Main Trend Bottom: 1.4437 (02-07-08)
PRICE
1.5570 .618 Retracemement
1.5426 50% Retracement
1.5398 Weekly Gann Angle down
1.5158 Gann Angle down
1.4935 Overnight High
1.4922 New York Close
1.4850 Overnight Low
1.4814 Closing Price Reversal Bottom (08-12-08)
1.4772 Gann Angle Up
1.4699 50% Retracement
1.4659 Gann Angle Up
1.4382 .618 Retracement
TIME
Aug 16 1-year anniversary
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