After last week's rather uneventful Riksbank meeting, we keep our view that the Swedish money market will continue to price the Riksbank 'low for longer' and we would not be surprised if financial markets start discussions on a possible Riksbank rate cut.
We keep our negative short-term view on the SEK. It is based on our Riksbank view and a SEK bearish technical picture indicating that a move towards 8.9000 in the EUR/SEK could be imminent.
Statistics Sweden will publish both September trade balance and retail sales and we need to see strong outcomes for our FY 2013 GDP forecast to remain intact.
In Norway it is time for labour market data, retail sales, PMI and the credit indicator.
The Norwegian numbers will face extra scrutiny after Norges Bank published a new model estimate (SAM) for mainland GDP growth in 2014. If taken at face value, it might imply yet another downward revision of the rate path at the December Norges Bank monetary policy meeting. The 'liquidity premium' that was attached to the NOK over the summer seems to have fallen recently, but the risk of yet another soft message from Norges Bank means that the risk short-term is still two-sided for the NOK.
In Denmark we will be keeping an eye on the central bank's monthly securities statistics and foreign portfolio investments data for September. On Friday, S&P affirmed Denmark's AAA-rating on its long-term sovereign debt - hence, Denmark remains the exclusive group of countries with a AAA-rating from S&P, Moody's and Fitch.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.
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EUR/SEK Move Towards 8.9000 May Be Imminent
Published 10/28/2013, 06:34 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/SEK Move Towards 8.9000 May Be Imminent
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