From 2.1834 at the August 2008 crisis, EUR/NZD rose to 2.5815 by February 2009 and eventually dropped 7928 pips to April 2015 lows at 1.3906 in 1100 pips per year increments. What drives past and current EUR/NZD prices are revolving correlations between EUR/USD and NZD/USD.
When EUR/NZD broke 1.8000’s and hit 1.5000 lows in 2012, correlations between EUR/USD and NZD/USD were on the floor so EUR/NZD transformed its correlations to USD/NZD and became a US dollar currency pair. EUR/NZD’s position in revolving correlations hasn’t changed since the 1971 free float, rather loyalties changed from market period to market period. Current EUR/NZD correlations Vs EUR/USD barely reveal a pulse in monthly averages from 1 – 10 years. Only 5, 7 and 10 year averages reveal a 40% correlation. Correlations Vs NZD/USD and USD/EUR factor deeply negative at minus 0.66. USD/NZD correlations run positive 0.69 and minus 0.99 in NZD/EUR.
Correlations to EUR/NZD means a direct benefit in any economic recovery as EUR/NZD will travel far higher from current 1.6600. Solid supports exist at 1.6533, 1.6403 and 1.6316. A break of 1.6316 changes current long trajectory to shorts. Next vital points above are found from 1.6673 – 1.6681 then on to 1.6800’s beginning at 1.6840.
If EUR/NZD is viewed from EUR/USD then tops exist from 1.6673 – 1.6681 and out of bounds at the 3 and 5 year averages. Today’s EUR/NZD price viewed by itself from daily ranges is also out of bounds. Price should trade between 1.6586 – 1.6223. The daily range is 181 total pips above or below current prices.
What is expected in EUR/NZD over time is a slow slow grind higher due because the Yellen raise and Draghi cut converged interest rates between the Fed and ECB. Fed funds closed at 0.36 in the last 6 days and 12 in the last 14. The channel between Fed Funds and European interest rates runs at current 0.40 and widened 9 basis points from 31 since last reported days ago. For EUR/USD and NZD/USD to head lower and EUR/NZD higher, the channel must widen far deeper than current levels. Solid US economic news, evidence of further rate hikes or disaster news from Europe would move the channel. EUR/NZD is a buy dip currency pair long into the future.