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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook: March 12, 2012

ByActionForex
Published 03/12/2012, 12:09 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
EUR/JPY
0.22%

Despite dripping to 105.64, EUR/JPY drew strong support from mentioned 38.2% retracement of 99.24 to 109.83 at 105.78 as expected. Pull back from 109.83 might have finished and initial bias is mildly on the upside for 109.83 first. Break will confirm rally resumption for 111.57 resistance next. Again, fall from 123.31 has likely finished on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 111.57 will affirm this bullish case and target 123.31 key resistance next. On the downside, however, below 105.64 will bring another fall to near term trend line support (now at 104.17) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, the case of trend reversal in EUR/JPY is starting to build up and 97.03 should be a medium term bottom. Break of 111.57 will affirm this case and should at least push EUR/JPY for a test on 123.31 resistance. Break there will argue that whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is completed and reversed. Though, failure to take out 123.31 and reversal from there will likely bring some sideway trading between 97.03/123.31 in medium term.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.

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