EUR/JPY Weekly Analysis: February 19, 2012

EUR/JPY jumped further to as high as 104.66 last week as rebound from 97.03 extended. Mentioned target of 100% projection of 97.03 to 102.20 from 99.24 at 104.41 was met and EUR/JPY is now close to falling trend line resistance (now at 105.17). At this point, rebound from 97.03 is still viewed as a correction only. Hence, while initial bias remains on the upside this week, we'll be cautious on reversal signal as EUR/JPY approaches the mentioned trend line resistance. Below 103.65 minor support will flip bias back to the downside first. Further break of 102.20 will argue that rebound from 97.03 is finished and will turn outlook bearish for 99.24 support and below. However, sustained trading above the trend line will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 107.60 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no clear sign of trend reversal in EUR/JPY yet. Fall from 123.31, which is part of the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still expected to continue after corrective rebound from 97.03 finishes. Next target is 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52. But in that case, we'd anticipate strong support there to bring at least a rebound attempt, as it's close to 88.96 all time low. However, sustained trading above the above mentioned trend line will be the first signal of reversal on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further break of 111.57 should confirm medium term bottoming and target 123.31 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.

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