The EUR/JPY formed a potential pin bar reversal setup two days back and has been struggling to make new gains into the upper regions of the rejection failing twice to breach the dynamic resistance and 20ema along with the key role-reversal level at 100.50. Although overall short-term momentum is up with the pair gaining 7 of the last 9 days, it doesn’t have much enthusiasm, and not surprising considering the Spanish bailout & upcoming Greek elections failing to allay any fears the EZ has turned the corner. Because of that, we are open to selling rallies in key areas and we would be open to shorting at 100.51 or 100.90 for a move back to 100 and 99.15. A break above the pin bar high would likely push price action back towards 101.96.
Global Market Commentary
Global markets fell today as the continual worries about Europe march on with Spain getting ratings cuts from Egan Jones and Moody’s (no surprises there) while the Greek Bank Runs Jogs continue to ramp up now being about €1B per day. As we noted about two weeks ago, what's stopping all the Greeks from taking their money out before the elections? Food for thought.
The Greek vote on the 17th is hanging like the Sword of Damocles over Europe but the fact remains Greece is almost out of cash, peripheral economies in Europe are losing access to capital markets while bond yields are hitting record territory in Spain and Italy and we do not expect any resolution in this theater to come soon.
Meanwhile, the S&P lost 9pts, the Dow 77pts and gold continues to gain adding another $5.20 to the shiny metal.