ES has formed a triangle on its 60-minute chart (bright blue on chart). It closed just below the triangle top.
It’s technically complete for a breakout downwards. In this case, it would probably creep up a little further to pierce the top, then reverse and break out through the bottom.
Or it could reverse and not break out the bottom, but instead continue moving back and forth inside the triangle. That would make it more likely to be a major topping triangle.
It’s also technically legal for a breakout upwards. That would make it more of a continuation diamond. But it could also put in another wave down before breaking out upwards.
Also, you know how triangles are. They often put in confusing double waves in the middle that appear to break out, but are really just redrawing the top or bottom. In that case, the triangle would appear to break out, but not take out the all-time high, and return into the body of the formation.
It’s important that ES and SPY have still not reached the bottoms of their 3-year price channels, yet they failed to set up a channel breakout before starting the triangle. ES and SPY are highly likely to tag the bottoms of those price channels soon.
The most likely scenario is a small fake breakout through the blue triangle top, then a reversal back into the triangle.