The EIA in their Short Term Energy Outlook said that, “in the 2021 summer driving season (April–September), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.78 per gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.07/gal last summer (Summer Fuels Outlook).
Higher forecast gasoline prices reflect higher forecast crude oil prices, higher wholesale gasoline refining margins, and higher U.S. consumption of motor gasoline. For all of 2021, we expect U.S. retail prices of regular-grade gasoline to average $2.66/gal and retail prices for all grades to average $2.78/gal, which would result in the average U.S. household spending about $480 (31%) more on motor fuel in 2021 compared with 2020.
EIA expects U.S. gasoline consumption to rise in response to growing levels of GDP and employment. In addition, as COVID-19 vaccines are more widely distributed, we expect that driving will increase, causing gasoline consumption to rise. We forecast that U.S. gasoline consumption in 2021 will average 8.6 million barrels per day (b/d), which is up from consumption in 2020 of 8.0 million b/d but down from consumption in 2019 of 9.3 million b/d.
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $65 per barrel (b) in March, up $3/b from February and up $33/b from March 2020, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Rising Brent prices in March continued to reflect expectations of rising oil demand as both COVID-19 vaccination rates and global economic activity have increased, combined with ongoing crude oil production limits from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+). EIA forecasts that Brent prices will average $65/b in the second quarter of 2021, $61/b during the second half of 2021, and $60/b in 2022.
The EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by 1.8 million b/d in the first half of 2021. Forecast increases in global oil supply will contribute to a mostly balanced market during the second half of 2021. However, the forecast depends heavily on future production decisions by OPEC+, the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to oil prices, and the pace of oil demand growth, among other factors.
EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will rise from an average of 25.1 million b/d in the first quarter of 2021 to 25.8 million b/d in the second quarter. The increase is the result of the April 1 OPEC+ announcement to begin raising production targets in May. It also reflects Saudi Arabia unwinding voluntary cuts of 1.0 million b/d between May and July.
As you know, we have been in the bull camp for over a year, and we are still in that camp. I believe that after this period of consolidation we will break out to the upside. We believe that the market is underestimating the rebound in demand and the ability of the production side to meet that demand.