Overall/forward guidance. At the governing council (GC) meeting next week, we do not expect explicit new forward guidance, but may see some hawkish bits, in particular in wage growth discussions along the lines of ECB's chief economist Peter Praet's comments on Wednesday, which were surprisingly hawkish.
Tasked committees. Draghi will face numerous questions on an (upcoming) change in forward guidance. Just as Draghi referred to tasked committees when lowering the APP purchase rate from EUR80bn to EUR60bn and EUR60bn to EUR30bn, we could envisage him using a similar reference while waiting for the July meeting .
Timing . While we expect forward guidance to be changed in July , we cannot rule out the possibility of it coming already next week given the recent comments from Praet. In our view, we have not received any data that should warrant the ECB moving already now. The ECB's actions, which were confirmed in March, have been reactive when removing stimuli and not proactive . In our view, a change to the forward guidance next week would also question the mantra of ECB being reactive .
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