– The current rally is very climactic, with only one bear bar in 11 bars, so the odds are we will see Emini sideways likely for a few days to relieve the exhausted bulls.
– The daily chart closed above the February high and 4,600 big round number.
– The rally from the March 14 low has been in a tight channel, so any reversal down is likely to be minor.
– The market is always in long, and there is probably around a 50% chance of a new all-time high. Everyone has the question of how deep the pullback will be before the market reaches or gets closer to the all-time high.
– The bulls hope to get a measured move of the February trading range. Any breakout above the all-time high will likely fail, and the market will likely continue sideways.
– The bears want a failed breakout of the February high. Next, they want a major trend reversal setup that tests back down to the February low.
– The bears know that the current rally is too strong to sell, so they will likely wait for a minor reversal before looking for a sell setup.
– Ultimately, the bears do not care if the market reaches the all-time high. If it does, the bears will want the market to go sideways and form a lower high or a higher high major trend reversal and selloff back down to the February low.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
– The market is currently down 10 points in the Globex session.
– The daily chart has had four consecutive bull days, so the odds favor a bear close today.
– Traders should be open to a bear trend from the open and look to sell if there are consecutive big bear bars.
– Traders should pay attention to the open of the day. If today is primarily a trading range, the market will probably test the open of the day multiple times.
– If the market is not far above the open of the day late in the day, traders should look for a sell setup since the odds favor a close below the open.
– As always, if today is a trading range, traders should look to buy in the bottom third and sell in the top third or the range.
Yesterday’s Emini Setups
