Pre-Open market analysis
Friday broke to a new all-time high. Furthermore, it was a small pullback bull trend day. While there is a 50% chance of follow-through buying in the 1st 2 hours today, there is a 75% chance of at least a couple hours of sideways to down trading, starting by the end of the 2nd hour.
Because the 3 day bull breakout has been strong on the daily chart, the odds are that there will be buyers below Friday’s low. The bears will therefore need at least a micro double top before they can create a pullback lasting more than 3 days.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is up 0.5 points in the Globex market. Since Friday was an extreme buy climax day, there is only a 25% chance of a strong bull trend day today. However, there is a 50% chance of at least some trend resumption up in the 1st 2 hours. In addition, there is a 75% chance of at least a 2 hour sideways to down move beginning by the end of the 2nd hour. Finally, since Friday was so climactic, there is an increased chance of at least a small reversal down today and a close below the open.
Since the Emini is in a buy climax on the weekly and monthly charts at a measured move target, there is an increased chance of a bear trend day. Furthermore, since a pullback to the weekly moving average is likely soon, there is an increased chance of a series of bear trend days beginning soon.
Friday’s setups
