Pre-Open Market
The Emini has been in a tight range for 3 weeks. Because the bull trend is strong, the odds favor higher prices. Yet, since the weekly chart has never been this overbought, the odds are against much higher prices without a pullback below the weekly moving average.
The past 2 weeks were small bars on the weekly chart. This is weak follow-through on the breakout above the prior high. Consequently, last week is a sell signal bar. While the bar itself is a weak signal bar, the context is good. The odds favor a 2 – 3 month correction starting at any time.
Overnight Emini
The Emini is up 2 points in the Globex market and it traded in a tight range. There is no sign that today will be different from the last few days. Therefore, the odds favor another mostly sideways day. Since the 4-week range is tight, it increases the odds of a strong breakout up or down. Because the weekly chart is so extremely extended, the odds are that any strong bull breakout will fail.
Friday’s Setups
Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.