The S&P 500 E-mini futures tested above May 4 high with E-mini bear reversal bar just shy of the major bear trend line. Bears want a reversal lower from a wedge bear flag (June 28, July 29 and August 16), but the move up is in a tight bull channel. The bears will need to create a follow-through bear bar next week to increase the odds of a re-test of the June low. For now, the move up is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
The Weekly S&P 500 E-mini chart
- This week’s E-mini candlestick was a bear bar closing near the low with a long tail above.
- Last week, we said that the May 4 high and the major bear trend line are close enough that they may act as magnets. The E-mini may need to test them first before we see some profit taking (pullback).
- This week, the E-mini traded above May 4 high but was just short of the bear trend line before some profit-taking activity started.
- The bulls got a reversal higher from a trend channel line overshoot, and a wedge bottom (February 24, May 20 and June 17). They want a second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
- This is the first series of consecutive bull bars (follow-through buying) since March and the move up from June 17 low is in a tight channel. That means persistent buying.
- There is a 6-bar bull micro channel, but that streak would likely end next week. There are often buyers below the first pullback after such a streak.
- The bulls will need to close far above the bear trend line to increase the odds of a re-test of the all-time high.
- The bears want the E-mini to stall around the May 4 high, or the major bear trend line. They want a reversal lower from a lower high followed by a re-test of the June low.
- They want a strong leg down like the one in April. The bears will need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to increase the odds of a re-test of the June low.
- They see the current rally as a deep pullback in a broad bear channel. The bears see a wedge bear flag (June 28, July 29 and August 16), but the move up is in a tight bull channel.
- We have said that because of the strong move up, the bears will need at least a micro double top or a strong reversal bar before they would be willing to sell aggressively.
- Since this week was a bear bar closing near the low, it is a good sell signal bar for next week. Next week may gap down at the open, however, small gaps usually close early.
- The bears will need to create a follow-through bear bar next week to increase the odds of a re-test of the June low.
- Bulls want next week to be a bull bar even though it may trade slightly lower first.
- For now, the move up is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
- However, if the bears start getting consecutive bear bars closing near their lows, the odds of a re-test of the June low and a third leg down of a larger wedge pattern may be forming.
The Daily S&P 500 E-mini chart
- The E-mini traded above the May 4 high on Tuesday but was just shy of the major bear trendline.
- Last week, we said that odds slightly favor a test of the May 4 high and the bear trend line. We may start to see some pullback within the next couple of weeks.
- However, the move up since July 14 is in a tight bull channel. It increases the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
- The bulls got a reversal higher from a trend channel line overshoot and a wedge bottom (February 24, May 20 and June 17).
- They then want a continuation higher from a higher low major trend reversal after a pullback.
- Bears want a reversal lower from around the May 4 high or around the bear trend line. They then want to re-test the June low, followed by a breakout and measured move down.
- There is a wedge pattern (July 22, August 3 and August 16) since the rally on July 14. However, the move up is in a tight bull channel.
- That means strong bulls. The bears will need at least a micro double top or a strong reversal bar before they would be willing to sell aggressively.
- The move up since July 14 is climactic. We may start to see some pullback within the next couple of weeks. It may have started this week, or after a micro double top, which means another small leg up to test August 16 high.
- However, the move is in a tight bull channel. It increases the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to up after a larger pullback. This remains true.
- The first target for the bears is the 20-day exponential moving average.