Pre-Open market analysis
The Emini has been in a trading range for 3 days. This is because traders are waiting for Comey’s testimony today. Since Comey has a history of making surprising comments, there is an increased risk of a trend up or down today.
Because the weekly chart is so overbought, the odds still favor limited upside. Furthermore there will probably be a pullback to the weekly moving average beginning within a few weeks.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is down 1 point in the Globex market. While today is rollover day, the June contract will still have much more volume. Therefore most daytraders will continue to trade June today, and switch to September tomorrow.
Because the Emini has been sideways for 3 days after a buy climax, the odds favor more trading range trading today. Since yesterday was a High 1 buy signal bar on the daily chart and the Emini is just below yesterday’s high, today will probably trade above yesterday’s high today. Yet, 3 consecutive dojis mean a weak bull flag. Therefore, the odds are against a strong rally above yesterday’s high.
Today’s Comey testimony has the potential to create a surprise. Hence, there is an increased chance of a trend up or down. Yet, more trading range trading is more likely. The odds are that there will be no surprise and today will be just another day in a developing tight trading range on the daily chart.