Currently the focus wis on Syria and whether the US and its allies are likely to launch an attack on the country. This could potentially trigger higher oil prices, and renew concern about emerging markets in the short term. Meanwhile, we expect a string of Chinese indicators to confirm that things have, at least, not turned worse and that there is room for policymakers to stimulate the economy.
Data out of Sweden and Norway could point to higher interest rates. We do not expect the general election in Norway to have much market impact.
Global macro and market theme:
European and US data have surprised on the upside, and it now seems clear to everyone that the recovery is under way. It will be hard for indicators to deliver further positive surprises.
Sentiment about emerging markets has also brightened a little, but it is still very negative, and, in our view, in the medium term.
The Danish central bank has not needed to intervene in FX markets for seven straight months and a Danish rate hike is not just around the corner.
Focus:
Commodity markets are seeking direction: "Commodities Monthly: Tug of war - demand recovery vs USD strength", 4 September.
Growth in the eurozone could be strong when it comes: "Research: Pent-up demand in investments could boost euro area growth", 3 September.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.
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Emerging Markets Cold Surprise On The Upside
Published 09/08/2013, 05:52 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Emerging Markets Cold Surprise On The Upside
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