It is widely known that the four-year U.S. Election Cycle has an influence on the U.S. stock market. What is not so widely known is that other markets also seem to “walk to the beat”. Take for example “emerging markets.”
The Test
For testing purposes we will use the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Gross Dividend) Monthly Total Return from the PEP Database from Callan Associates starting in January 1988.
EEM started trading in May 2003 and can be used for trading purposes.
The EEM Election Cycle Calendar
Figure 1 displays my Emerging Markets Election Cycle Calendar. During months marked EEM, the Emerging Markets Index is held. The same months are used over the course of each 4-year cycle.
To be clear, during each post-election year in the U.S. (i.e., 1989, 1993, 1997, etc.) we would hold the Emerging Markets Index during the months of January, April, May, July, September, November and December. During all other months during that year we would NOT hold the Emerging Markets Index.
Figure 2 displays the growth of $1,000 invested in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (actual results using EEM will likely be slightly lower due to ETF fees) ONLY during the months marked EEM during every 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle starting in 1988.
Figure 2 – Growth of $1,000 invested in MSCI Emerging Markets Index ONLY during Favorable Election Cycle Months; 1988-2107
Figure 3 displays the growth of $1,000 invested the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ONLY during the months NOT marked EEM during every 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle starting in 1988.
Figure 3 – Growth of $1,000 invested in MSCI Emerging Markets Index ONLY during non-Favorable Election Cycle Months; 1988-2107
For The Record:
*$1,000 invested in the “favorable” months grew to $145,908 (+14,491%)
*$1,000 invested in the “other” months declined to $166 (-83%)
Figure 4 displays a few comparative values between holding the emerging markets index during the “Favorable” versus “Unfavorable” months.
Figure 4 – 12-months returns for Favorable versus non-Favorable Months; 1988-2017
Summary
So is the calendar displayed in Figure 1 guaranteed to generate profits ad infinitum into the future? Not at all. But the results displayed herein do suggest that there just might be something to this whole 4-year cycle “thing”.