After quite a few jitters in the global financial markets in May and particularly June, some calm has returned over the past month. This has also benefited the EMEA markets and in general we have seen the region's fixed income and FX markets recover some lost ground.
This has mostly been a result of investors becoming less nervous about premature scaling back of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and, to a lesser extent, because tensions in the Chinese money markets have eased.
Hence, the global financial climate has certainly improved, which overall makes us slightly more optimistic on the EMEA markets than a month ago. This is also visible in our EMEA FX Scorecard, where the overall scores in general have improved and for some currencies even turned positive.
Monetary policy failure could slow growth
The sell off in the emerging markets currencies in May-June caused a number of EM central banks to move towards a more hawkish stance - most places we think this has been premature and unnecessary monetary tightening, which is likely to cause growth to slow down and in some cases probably fairly dramatically.
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