The WLI growth (as published by ECRI) is on -0.4 from -1.4 last week and -2.2 the week before that. This is the 10th consecutive week of rises in the growth index. If it rises next week it is sure to breach the zero threshold.
The WLIg+1 which is our preferred measurement, registered -0.58 versus -0.99 the prior week and -1.43 the week before that. We calculate real-time probability of recession with the WLI based on WLIg+1 and this registered 0.38 this week, versus 0.42 last week and 0.51 the week before that.
It is looking like the WLI has posted its 2nd false positive since March 2009, but we need to wait for the growth metrics to rise above zero before having more conviction on this.