The ECB kept all rates unchanged and it appears that discussion of a rate cut is over, at least for now, as today's rate decision was unanimous. There were few changes to the introductory statement. Mario Draghi, the ECB president, appeared very relaxed, pointing to the improvement in the global outlook, market sentiment and reduced fragmentation.
Draghi in particular focused on the improved market conditions and reduced yields in sovereign peripherals. He said that we should expect to see positive contagion in the same way we have seen negative contagion in the past.
We continue to expect the ECB to keep both the refi and deposit rates unchanged for some time. Overall, we are slightly more optimistic on the growth outlook than the ECB staff projection and we believe it is likely that the rate discussion will fade as the euro area returns to positive growth in H1.
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