We welcome you to a new trading week. Traders were recently exasperated by the market's limited fluctuations and the poor performance of some major currency pairs (particularly the EUR/USD) which has led to losses. However, the market showed a different picture last Friday with the U.S. dollar rallying and driving its counterparts towards lower price levels. Ultimately, short-traders' efforts paid off as bearish momentum increased. The greenback regained some of its strength as investors shift their expectations towards a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, while other central banks are expected to ease monetary policy. The most important event this week will be the Fed meeting and FOMC statement on Wednesday. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady this month the focus will be on details such as the question of whether someone voted against maintaining interest rates on hold in July. This would give rise to speculations the Fed hikes rates later this year. Before the FOMC statement, U.S. Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) and Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday) will be interesting reports to watch. Furthermore, GDP reports from U.K., Eurozone and U.S. could determine the price action in both major currency pairs. Overall, it could be a volatile trading week and we will be looking for interesting trading opportunities while focusing on the technical picture.
EUR/USD
The euro finally broke below 1.0970 and could now be facing a next lower barrier at 1.0915, from where pullbacks are becoming more likely. Based on a downward channel in the 4-hour chart we expect short-term corrections to be limited until 1.1035/40. The German Ifo Survey is scheduled for release today at 8:00 UTC and could put pressure on the euro in case investor sentiment deteriorated further.
GBP/USD
The technical outlook in the cable is interesting as it provides both bullish and bearish scenarios. A break below 1.30 may reinvigorate bearish momentum towards 1.28, whereas an upside break above 1.33 could drive the pair towards 1.3450. However, given the overall bearish bias, we only expect bullish momentum to be sustained after a break above 1.35.
Here are our daily signal alerts:
EUR/USD
Long at 1.0980 SL 25 TP 30-40
Short at 1.0934 SL 25 TP 20, 50
GBP/USD
Long at 1.3222 SL 25 TP 30-40
Short at 1.3090 SL 25 TP 20, 50
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Disclaimer: Any and all liability of the author is excluded.