What should be an interesting week started off with rather a boring day....welcome to the Christmas trading season.
Reality is we are now getting right into the holiday trading period with lower volumes either sparking very quiet markets or larger than normal moves as the liquidity isn't quite there.
Where possible I always suggest keeping it to only the best set-ups in December and stops wide enough not to get caught out.
With that we saw a push higher in the markets today. Frankly, this wasn't related to anything and therefore wouldn't pay too much attention to it.
On our key themes:
- Greece extended their buyback offer until tomorrow, as they didn't quite get what they wanted.
- PM Monti looks like he will resign (sending Italian markets lower).
- No real progress on the Cliff today and only a few days until Congress adjorns means we are unlikely to get a Cliff deal.
The good news is we have a better calendar for the rest of the week and apparently (someone sent me a great stat earlier), the majority of euro shorts have happened on a Tuesday or Wednesday this year.
German ZEW tomorrow, on light volumes this could be a bit of a catalyst, a poor number could spark a further sell of in the euro. We then have the FOMC decision on Wednesday.
EUR/USD
The euro moved higher today, but we entered the week looking for a clear breakout of the lower level to put us short. Our strategy remains the same.
GBP/USD
The pound pushed higher today off of the interim support level we highlighted. We are currently standing aside this pair waiting for a clear entry signal; current bias remains to the downside.
AUD/USD
The aussie bounced around today but achieved very little. We still remain on the sidelines with this pair especially on weak holiday trade.
USD/JPY
The dollar-yen pair seems to be holding up well. We still prefer a pullback to around the 81.00 handle but this market seems determined to chop sideways for now. Breakout plays could now be on the cards with a break of the 83.00 mark opening the door to moves higher.
GBP/JPY
Like the USD/JPY this market is now chopping sideways and seems to determine to hold price. We cut our position for breakeven and will look for another entry.
EUR/SEK
The pair bounced and stopped us out for a small gain on the remainder of this trade. This pair has the potential to trace the 50-day moving average lower, but for now we will wait for another clear entry signal.
EUR/CAD
Bounced slightly with other euro crosses but failed to reclaim and hold last weeks close. We now have a further opportunity in a breakout play to the downside as we hover around the 50-day moving average.