The Bank of England (BOE) would never be time specific or give an exact time frame as to when they will raise rates. There is way too much focus on this topic right now as many are speculating the BOE will raise its rates in the first half of 2015.
In a recent press conference BOE member Ben Broadbent, who is also in the running to be the next bank chief, was quite specific on this point. “We have never given, would not want to give, and are not giving time-specific” information as to when something like this could happen. There should be less focus here.
We have seen the economic data coming out of the UK improving over the last year adding fuel to the chatter that the BOE would raise rates. The key lending rate is a benchmark for mortgages ad savers across the UK and is tied to the unemployment rate.
GDP Grows Slowly
The UK official office on statistics released, on Wednesday, that the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded only 0.7 percent in Q4 of 2014.Business investment, however, jumped sharply.
At the last BOE policy meeting bank chief Mark Carney unveiled his next phase of his forward guidance. This came after jobless numbers shocked the central bank by falling rapidly. It was shocking to many economists that his next phase did not link a rate hike to any specific gauges. Instead, Carney is going to have the monetary policy committee (MPC) watch a broad range of gauges or indicators. These include labor market participation, average hours worked, wages and productivity. The BOE would also publish forecasts of 18 more economic indicators. This is the first time they are doing that.
The BOE to Look Long Term
Any borrower or business looking to expand or invest will be concerned over rates or where the interest rate will be over a period of several years. The precise time when the key rate goes from 0.5 to its next level has no bearing on what the average rate of interest will be over the next 3-5 years. So focusing solely on this is futile.
Further, a rate hike is a contentious political issue as well. Politicians are concerned how the country will react to a rise in rates, not seen since 2009. They are especially fretting, since mortgage rates will be effected and they have elections in 2015. This has put carney under some fire as his forward guidance policy is not making it clear when rates will rise.