Dollar tumbled overnight as New York Fed president William Dudley warned that the slowdown in global economy and strengthening of dollar could have "significant consequences" for the US economy. He noted that financial conditions were "considerably tighter than they were at the time of the December meeting." And, if the financial conditions continued to the March FOMC meeting "we would have to take that into consideration in terms of that monetary policy decision." Separately, Fed Governor Lael Brainard also warned that "recent developments reinforce the case for watchful waiting." She also noted that stresses in emerging markets could translate to "weaker exports, business investment, and manufacturing in the United States, slower progress on hitting the inflation target, and financial tightening through the exchange rate and rising risk spreads on financial assets,"
The sharp fall in the dollar index and break of 97.19 support confirmed resumption of decline from 100.51. Fall from 100.51 is viewed as the third leg of the sideway pattern from 100.39. Deeper fall should be seen towards 161.8% projection of 100.51 to 97.19 from 99.82 at 94.44. As the price actions from 100.39 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, we'd expect strong support below 94.44 and above medium term fibonacci level at 92.18 to bring rebound.
US equities also staged a strong rebound on the Fedspeaks. Crude oil was also boosted additionally by comments from Russia's foreign minister which reiterated their willingness to meet if there was consensus among OPEC and non-OPEC members on production cut. WTI is back at 32.6 after breaching 30 handle briefly. DJIA closed 183.12 pts, or 1.13%, higher at 16336.66 and focus is now back on 16593.51 near term resistance. Asian markets are mixed with Nikkei trading down -0.85% at the time of writing. But China and Hong Kong indices are trading up.
BoE Super Thursday is the main focus today as the central bank will release rate decision, meeting minutes as well as quarterly inflation report. BoE is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintain asset purchase target at GBP 375b. The main focus is whether BoE would lower inflation and growth forecast for this year and next. Elsewhere, Australia NAB business confidence rose to 4. Swiss will release SECO consumer confidence, Eurozone will release retail PMI and ECB bulletin. US will release challenger job cuts, non-farm productivity, jobless claims and factory orders.