Dollar remains generally weak as economic data continues to raise doubt on the case for Fed to hike interest rate by the end of the year. In particular, markets noted that there were two Fed governors arguing the case for delaying the hike, including Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo this week. Brainard urged Fed to wait to see "if the risks to outlook diminish". Tarullo was even more straightforward and said he "wouldn't expect it would be appropriate to raise rates” this year. Dollar broke near term support against Euro and Swiss Franc yesterday. The greenback is also pressing near term support against Yen and Canadian dollar for the moment. We'd probably see more selling in dollar till the end of the week.
Dollar index dropped through 94.06 support and the development confirmed that rebound from 92.62 has completed at 96.70 after failing to sustain above 55 days EMA. Current fall is viewed as part of the consolidation pattern from 100.39. Deeper decline should be seen back to 92.62 support. At this point, we'd expect strong support at 38.2% retracement of 78.90 to 100.39 at 92.18 to contain downside and bring rebound.
Released today, Australian employment dropped -5.1k in September, much worse than expectation of 5.0k. Full time employment dropped -13.9k while part-time employment rose 8.9k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2% but that was accompanied by a fall in participation rate to 64.9%. While Aussie recovered against dollar, it stays the second weakest major currency this week as there are growing speculations of an RBA rate cut next year. Also released, New Zealand business manufacturing index rose to 55.4 in September.
Looking ahead, main focus will be in US data today. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise to 269k in the week ended October 10. CPI is expected to turn negative to -0.2% yoy in September while core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 1.8% yoy. Empire Stat manufacturing index and Philly Fed survey will also be featured.