Dollar recovers mildly but remains the weakest major currency this week as market awaits employment data from US. Non-farm payroll report is expected to show 192k growth in jobs in January while unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.0%. Average hourly earnings are expected to pick up growth again and rise 0.3% mom. ADP private job growth slowed to 205k in January. Employment component of ISM manufacturing dropped further to 45.9. Employment component of ISM services also dropped to 52.1. Consumer confidence, on the other hand, rose to 98.1. But since the expectation for NFP today isn't high, except on wage growth, we might not have much surprise. Markets have basically priced out a March hike by Fed and today's report is not going to change that. Odds of June hike is 22% based on fed funds futures and a string of strong data is needed to revive the chance, not just one piece of job data.
Fed members revealed little about FOMC's policy outlook. In response to questions about March's move, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan noted that "this is a time for patience and analysis, and really assessing data, because there has been some slowing" According to him, "financial conditions have tightened, and we know that non-U.S. growth is weakening, and I have got to take that into account as a policymaker". Separately, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed that "until we see further evidence to the contrary, my expectation is that the US economy will work through the latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch to regain its footing for moderate growth, even as the energy and manufacturing sectors remain challenged". She added that the "economic conditions will evolve in a way that will warrant rates moving up gradually over time to more normal levels".
Yesterday, BOE voted 9-0 to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5%. Surprisingly, Ian McCafferty, who had been favoring a rate hike since August, joined the majority amidst expectations that the pickup in wage growth would be pressured. Citing concerns that "global financial conditions have deteriorated notably" and that persistent weakness in oil prices have weighed on inflation, policymakers now expect inflation would average at 0.8% this year, before accelerating to 2% in 2018. Risks to these forecasts are "skewed a little to the downside in the near term, reflecting the possibility of greater persistence of low inflation". Low inflation in turn would "moderate the increase in wage pressure in the near-term". They have also revised lower the GDP growth outlook, with the economy expected to expand +2.2% this year and +2.3% in 2017, down from previous projections of +2.255 and +2.6% respectively. On the monetary policy outlook, Governor Mark Carney affirmed that the "whole MPC thinks that the next move in rates is more likely to be up than down". More in BOE United Again To Keep Policy Rate On Hold. GDP And Inflation Forecasts Downgraded