Dollar remains soft in Asian session and is mixed over the week. The greenback managed to hold on to some gains against Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc but is in loss against Sterling and commodity currencies. Despite various signals that solidify a December rate hike by Fed, including FOMC minutes, the greenback fails to ride on recent rally but lost momentum. It is seen that traders are now looking beyond December into next year and the outlook for Fed's rate path is still rather unclear. Fed fund futures are pricing in 72% change of 25 bps hike in December. After that, futures are pricing in 36% chance of another hike by March and 60% by June. It seems that market participants are relatively unsure about the timing of another hike. And because of that, the dollar index is facing some pressure ahead of 100.39 key resistance level.
Fed vice president Stanley Fischer said yesterday that "some major central banks" could lift interest rate from near zero "in the relatively near future". And he also noted that Fed has done "everything we can to avoid surprising the markets and governments when we move". And, while Fed doesn't take orders from others, Fischer note that other central banks were asking Fed to get on with rate hike and that indicated they have "made their preparations". Also, he noted that FOMC meetings have become more "exciting and interesting" as Fed is near accommodation removal.
Dollar index edged higher to 99.85 earlier this week but yesterday's sharp fall raised the chance of near term topping. Also, daily MACD is trying to cross the signal line too. One interpretation is that the consolidation pattern from March high of 100.39 has completed and current rise is resuming the larger up trend. But we won't be surprised that price actions from 99.85 would develope into another down leg as part of the consolidation pattern before up trend finally resumes. At this point, as long as 98.43 support holds, we'll still expect further rise to 100.39 high. Nonetheless, break of 98.43 should at least bring a pull back to 55 days EMA (now at 97.07).
On the data front, Germany will release PPI in European session while UK will release public sector net borrowing. Main focus today will be Canadian data which feature retail sales and CPI. Eurozone will also release consumer confidence.