Dollar weakened broadly as Fed signaled a gradual tightening path after keeping interest rate unchanged near zero yesterday. Policies makers maintained the projection that the federal fund rate would rise to 0.625% this year and the majority still expected a September hike. However, the interest rate forecast for end of 2016 was lowered quite considerably to 1.625%, down from March estimate of 1.875%. For end of 2017, interest rate was projected to be 2.875%, also revised down from March projection of 3.125%. Fed chair Janet Yellen also sounded cautious in her press conference. She acknowledged that "considerable progress" was made towards the goal of maximum employment and inflation will "move gradually back" towards the target. Nonetheless, she also cited signs of "cyclical weakness" in the labor market and wage growth remained "subdued". She noted that "economic conditions are currently anticipated to evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the target federal funds rate."
In the updated economic projections, Fed lowered central tendency forecast for 2015 GDP growth to 1.8%-2.0%, sharply lower than March projection of 2.3%-2.7%. The revision was even more drastic considering it was projected to be 2.6-3.0% back in December. 2016 growth is projected to be 2.4%-2.7% vs 2.3-2.7% in March. 2017 growth is projected to be 2.1%-2.5% vs 2.0%-2.4% in March. Core CPE inflation is projected to be 1.3%-1.4% for 2015, same as in March. For 2016, core PCE is projected to be 1.6%-1.9% vs 1.5%-1.9% in March. For 2017, core PCE is projected to be 1.9-2.0% vs 1.8-2.0%. Unemployment is expected to be at 5.2-5.3% by end of 2015 vs 5.0%-5.2% in March. End of 2016 unemployment forecast was held unchanged 4.9-5.1%. 2017 unemployment projection was slightly changed to 4.9%-5.1% vs 4.9%-5.1% in March.
While the dollar index dropped overnight, the general outlook is unchanged. Consolidation pattern from 100.39 is still in progress with 97.77 as a falling leg. Deeper decline could be seen back t93.13 support. But still we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 78.90 to 100.39 at 92.18 to contain downside to bring rebound. The larger up trend is expected to resume for a new high above 100.39 at a later stage.
Elsewhere, New Zealand dollar is weak as Q1 GDP showed 0.2% qoq growth versus expectation of 0.6% qoq. SNB rate decision will be a focus in European session and is expected to keep policies unchanged. Swiss will also release trade balance. ECB will release monthly bulletin while UK will release retail sales. From US, a batch of economic data will be released include CPI, jobless claims, Philly Fed survey and leading indicators.