Dollar remained soft in Asian session today as recent consolidation continues. The greenback was somewhat weighed down by last week's employment data, which showed negative rate growth in December. Nonetheless, weakness in the greenback is so far limited, except versus Australian dollar. The Aussie ignored weak housing data released in Asia today and extended last week's rebound. The break of 0.8214 resistance in AUD/USD indicates near term bottoming and would bring stronger rise ahead. In other markets, Japan is on holiday today. Other major Asian indices are mixed in tight range. Crude oil stays in tight range above last week's low of 46.83. Gold strengthened mildly and breached 1230 handle.
The greenback formed temporary tops against other major currencies including even the weak European majors. But there is no sign of trend reversal yet in general. Outlook in dollar remains generally bullish. The dollar index is still in medium term up trend and should target next key fibonacci level at 50% retracement of 121.02 (2001 high) to 70.69 (2008 low) at 95.85. We'll hold on to this view as long as 89.65 support holds.
Latest CFTC data showed net positions in major currencies generally deteriorated on January 6 comparing to the prior week. Euro net shorts rose slightly from -152k to -161k. Sterling net shorts also rose from -19k to -26k. Yen net shorts dropped from -96k to -90k. Aussie net shorts jumped from -40.7k to -48.7k and hit the highest level since February 2014. Canadian dollar net shorts rose from -14k to -17k.
We have a light schedule today. For the week ahead, the UK would release its inflation report tomorrow. Headline CPI probably eased to 0.7% YOY in December from 1% a month ago. On Wednesday, the US retail sale data for December would be due while the Fed would also release its latest Beige Book report. On Thursday, the US empire State manufacturing index and the Philly Fed index would be released. While the former is expected to have risen to 5 in January from -3.58 a month ago, the latter probably slipped -4.5 points to 20 during the month. Eurozone's inflation report would be due Friday. Headline reading probably dropped to -0.2% YOY in December, from 0.3% previously. The core CPI might have stayed unchanged at 0.7%. For the US, headline inflation probably eased to 0.8% YOY in December from 1.3% a month ago. The core reading might have stayed unchanged at 1.7%.