Dollar is set to remain the weakest major currency for the month as markets await key economic data and FOMC statement today. Q1 GDP report is expected to show growth slowed to 1.0%, comparing to prior 2.2%. GDP price index is expected to rise 0.4% qoq, comparing to prior 0.1%. Fed is widely expected to keep policies unchanged. More importantly, there are little expectations on the changes in the accompanying statement. Weaker than expected economic data released recently ruled out the chance of a rate hike a June. And Fed is highly unlikely to change the stance on the timing of the rate hike. Fed might tone down the assessment of the economy while keeping the inflation outlook unchanged. The upcoming data in Q2 would be crucial in deciding whether Fed would hike in September, as the markets currently expect.
Overall, the risks to dollar is skewed to the downside. That is, upside surprise in US GDP might trigger a recovery in the greenback but that is unlikely to last long. Markets would be back to reality that Fed's path remains heavily dependent on Q2 data and that should be confirmed by the FOMC statement. On the other hand, disappointment from GDP data, couple with a cautious FOMC statement would accelerate the current slide in the greenback. We'd noted that there were already signs of reversal in USD/CAD, followed by AUD/USD. Outlook in EUR/USD and GBP/USD stays bearish in spite of the current rebound. But focus will stay on 1.1052 in EUR/USD and 1.5551 in GBP/USD.
Elsewhere, released from New Zealand, trade surplus widened to NZD 631m in March versus expectation of NZD 312m. That's partly due to re-export of a drilling platform to Singapore. But the exclude that, trade surplus still hit NZD 432m. Exports dropped -2.0% yoy while imports rose 4.2% yoy. NBNZ business confidence dropped to 30.2 in April. NZD/USD followed others and extended recent recovery. But momentum clearly lagged behind AUD/USD. This could also be reflected in the rebound AUD/NZD. The break of 1.0351 resistance indicates that the near term trend is possibly reversing. And focus is now on 1.0489 support turned resistance to confirm medium term bottoming near to parity. The focus is the upcoming RBNZ statement, which might show the central is shifting a bit more towards the dovish side.
Elsewhere, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, German Gfk consumer sentiment and CPI, Eurozone M3 and confidence indicators, UK CBI reports sales, Canada IPPI and RMPI will be release later today.