The noise of Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Bernanke’s subsequent Q&A session continued to dominate investors’ thinking yesterday with the USD falling to its weakest level in trade-weighted terms in 2 weeks.
The assumption that tapering of Fed assets, which seemed a certainty to take place in September according to most commentators, has had doubt cast upon it in recent sessions with yesterday’s initial jobless claims numbers only adding to a pot devoid of clarity.
Claims missed estimates yesterday afternoon, rising to 360,000 vs 340,000 expected with the amount of continuing claims – those who have been claiming for more than 4 weeks – also increasing. Bernanke told you we needed an improvement in US labour functions before tapering would occur. What more do you want?
Until the number was published there had been a fair bit of USD buying taking place as traders obviously thought that the post-Bernanke move was overdone. Needless to say the USD has remained on its heels since.
There has been some respite for the Eurozone this morning with S&P upgrading its outlook on the Irish economy from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’. While this is not a rating upgrade it does mean that the next movement in the rating, barring any howlers, is likely to be positive.
The upgrade is based on the country’s adherence to its deficit reduction program and the forecast reduction in its debt burden. EURUSD is relatively unchanged since yesterday but GBPEUR did pick its game up through yesterday’s session, ending above 1.16.
Eurozone industrial production, US producer prices and University of Michigan consumer confidence are the main data points on what is set to be a quiet day. Famous last words….