Sales were rather poor at 110 krb with China's yarn supplier, Viet, high at nearly 50 krb. Shipments were poor at 105 krb. Demand at 65c Mar slowed considerably, and next week we can see what 63c inspires.
Grain and oil seeds enjoyed a bounce off of lows today, in spite of the dollar soaring by +1%. The dollar did nothing yesterday after the Fed blessed its minions, but chose today to react. Our humble opinion is that this rate hike was priced in early last summer, but for now that is not proving true.
Recently we have cranked out a new crop acreage report indicating a higher planting next year, and a few other analysts with credibility have also estimated higher numbers. Even though the US may rise by 10% to 13%, this will not make up for overall losses elsewhere. Initial work shows world acreage down 2% to 6%.
Varner View
We entered long positions in the 6350 area, and here we sit. Even though the carryout beckons a much higher price, this market does not break out on either side and punishes those looking for big moves. This is a crawlin king-snake type of market and we will exit at 6650. A hope and a prayer is out there if Mar or Dec ever trades 6800, as that will be where we get some serious hedges on. One of these days.
Technicals
Regards the spot continuous chart, a very long but accurate trend line beginning with the major spot low in Nov 2013 at 7379 crosses the major Sep 2014 high of 7149 then crosses the intermediate high of 6830 this past Aug. This trend line has been in effect for 26 months and has been tested 2x and has held, making it a dominant tech resistance. This line crosses today near 6700.