Dollar stays mixed as markets continued to pare back expectations of a Fed hike next week after weak economic data. Fed fund futures are only pricing in 12% chance of a hike this month. Chance of December hike also lowered to 46.2%, down from prior day's 52.9%. However, according to a Reuters poll, economists are predicting a median 70% chance of a December move, up from prior month's 57.5%. Elsewhere in the currency markets, Canadian dollar stays the weakest major currency as dragged down by weakness in oil prices. Aussie follows as surging US yields reduced attractiveness of high yield currencies. Sterling is also under much pressure after BoE signaled further rate cut later this year. Meanwhile, Yen are broadly higher together with Swiss Franc on risk aversion.
Yesterday, BOE voted unanimously to keep the Bank rate at 0.25% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound. This had been widely anticipated as the central bank in August trimmed the policy rate by -25 bps and expanded the asset purchase program by +70B, of which 60B pound is for the purchases of government bonds over 6 months and 10B pound for sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bonds purchases over 18 months. Despite the encouraging macroeconomic data, BOE suggested that "the Committee's view of the contours of the economic outlook following the EU referendum had not changed". Meanwhile, if November's forecasts were "broadly consistent" with those in August, "a majority of members expected to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound at one of the MPC's forthcoming meetings during the course of the year". More in BOE Leaves the Door for Further Rate Cut in November.
SNB left its monetary policy unchanged in September, keeping the sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75% and the target for the three-month Libor at between -1.25% and -0.25%. While there's no press conference, it is unveiled in the post-meeting statement that the central bank acted in response to the Brexit shock. It reiterated the pledge to 'remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary'. On the economic outlook, the staff revised lower the inflation forecasts, expecting inflation to rise above +1% by 1Q19, compared with June's projection of 3Q18. More in SNB Left Policy Rates Unchanged, Reaffirmed FX Intervention To Prevent CHF Appreciation.
Looking ahead, US CPI will be the main focus today. Headline CPI is expected to rise to 1.0% yoy in August while core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.2% yoy. U of Michigan consumer sentiment will also be featured. Canada will release international securities transactions and manufacturing shipments.