Dollar pulled back overnight against Euro and Swiss Franc after less dovish than expected ECB press conference. Nonetheless, the greenback remains firm against Yen and Aussie as markets await employment data from US today. The non-farm payroll report is expected to show 225k growth in November while unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%. The leading indicators to NFP were generally negative. The ADP employment growth slowed to 208k and missed expectation of 224k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing dropped from 55.5 to 54.9 while that of ISM non-manufacturing dropped from 59.6 to 56.7. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims rose from 279k to 299k while continuing claims rose from 2.35m to 2.36m. Conference board consumer confidence dropped from 94.1 to 88.7. U of Michigan consumer sentiment, nonetheless, improved from 86.9 to 88.8. Overall, we'd probably have some mild disappointment from NFP today. US will also release trade balance and factory orders. Elsewhere, Canada will release job data, labor productivity and trade balance. Swiss will release foreign currency reserves. Eurozone will release GDP revision while Germany will release factory orders.
The US Dollar Index extended recent rally to 89.12 this week but lost some momentum since then. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 87.18 support holds. However, we'd point out again the dollar index would face important resistance zone of 88.70/89.62. Bearish divergence condition remains in daily MACD. Thus, upside potential is relatively limited and risk of a deep correction is high. A break of 87.18 will reverse the near term trend in the dollar index.
Euro recovered overnight on less dovish than expected ECB press conference. ECB president Mario Draghi noted that the central bank discussed "possibility of doing QE”, that is, government bond purchases, "as one option". But he also emphasized that more time is needed to gauge the effect of prior stimulus and the need for additional easing. He noted that ECB will reassess the policies early next year and "it doesn't mean at the next meeting".
ECB also released latest staff projections. GDP was forecast to grow 0.8% in 2014, 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. That was substantially lower than September projections of 0.9% in 2014, 1.6% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016. Inflation is projected to be 0.5% in 2014, 0.7% in 2015, 1.3% in 2016. That compared to September projections of 0.6% in 2014, 1.1% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016. It should also be noted that Draghi remarked that the projection didn't take into account recent fall in oil prices.