Dollar Index Could Break Out On Yellen’s Comments

By Blackwell Global (Ross Woodfield)CurrenciesJul 15, 2014 07:44AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/dollar-index-could-break-out-on-yellen%E2%80%99s-comments-219484

Dollar Index Could Break Out On Yellen’s Comments

By Blackwell Global (Ross Woodfield) | Jul 15, 2014 07:44AM ET

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The US Dollar Index is forming itself into a triangle shape ahead of a speech by FED Chairwoman Janet Yellen. If her comments move the dollar enough in either direction, we will see a breakout of the shape.

Dollar Index

Beginning on Tuesday, US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify before congress for two days and the market will scrutinise every word she says. FED officials have previously indicated they will look to begin raising interest rates in the US summer next year. But they do not want to give any certainty around interest rates in order to give themselves room to move, should market conditions change between now and then.

Yellen will want to sound optimistic enough to justify tapering the Quantitative Easing(QE) programme that is scheduled to end in October. She has good reasons to optimistic; the unemployment rate is falling and the nonfarm payroll shows the employment situation improving. In the last month there have been many PMI reports out, all showing expansion, such as the Chicago PMI at 62.6 or the Services PMI at 61.0. Yellen will have one or two concerns, for example; GDP, which fell in Q1 this year by an annualised -2.9%, however on the balance of it she will be optimistic overall.

Any comments from Yellen that the FED is optimistic and might signal interest rate rises coming sooner than summer next year will send the dollar index smashing through the bearish resistance (upper) line of the triangle. Conversely, anything to signal that the fed is not as optimistic as the market and may hold off raising interest rates for longer will send the dollar the other way, plummeting through the bullish trend line.

Traders take advantage of a breakout either way. Setting stop entries outside the triangle with stop losses back inside should catch the momentum of a breakout. Look for previous levels of resistance/support to act as target levels for a breakout. Resistance can be found at 80.326, 80.385 and 80.550. Support can be found at 80.118, 79.992 and 79.756.

Dollar Index

The upcoming two day testimony by US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is likely to see the triangle on the US Dollar Index H4 chart tested. A breakout could occur on either side depending on her comments and previous levels of support/resistance will likely act as targets for a breakout movement.

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Dollar Index Could Break Out On Yellen’s Comments

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