Dollar edges higher as the week starts on Fed rate expectations. Markets are leaning more towards an earlier rate hike, with more aggressive pace, after Friday's strong job data. Fed fund futures suggested 22% chance of a June hike and 66% of a September hike. Meanwhile, according to a Reuters Poll, economists expected federal fund rate to be 0.875% by the end of 2015 and 2.375% by the end of 2016, comparing to February poll result of 0.750% and 2.125% respectively. Dollar extended recent up trend against euro last week already. And, focus will be on whether other dollar pairs would follow and take our recent highs against other major currencies. That include 1.4950 support in GBP/USD, 0.7625 support in AUD/USD, 121.84 resistance in USD/JPY and 1.2797 in USD/CAD.
In Eurozone, Greek government sent a letter to Eurogroup outlining the measures that would meet the requirement for disbursement of aid form the creditors. Eurogroup ministers are expected to discuss on the list of measures today. Head of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, was quoted in a reply to Greece, saying that "this document will be helpful in the process of specifying the first list of reform measures." However, Dijsselbloem was also quoted elsewhere saying the the Greece's list was far from being complete and Eurogroup might not make a decision today. In any case, this would be a focus that might trigger some volatility in euro.
On the data front, China trade surplus widened to USD 60.6b in February, much larger than expectation of USD 7.8b. Japan Q4 GDP was finalized at 0.4% qoq, revised down from 0.6% qoq, GDP deflation was revised up to 2.4% yoy. Japan current account surplus widened to JPY 1.06T in January. New Zealand manufacturing activity dropped -0.7% in Q4. German trade balance, Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence and Canada housing starts will be released later today.
The economic calendar for the week ahead is also relatively light. Main focuses are on China CPI, UK productions, RBNZ rate decision, Australia employment, US retail sales and Canada employment. Here are some highlights:
- Tuesday: China CPI and PPI; Swiss unemployment; US wholesale inventories
- Wednesday: China industrial productions, retail sales; Australia home loans; UK productions
- Thursday: RBNZ rate decision; Australia employment; UK trade balance; US retail sales, jobless claims
- Friday: Canada employment; US PPI, U of Michigan sentiment