The forex markets opened the week with dollar in a mild firm tone. Nonetheless, most major pairs and crosses are stuck in Friday's range, except that notable weakness is seen in Aussie and Kiwi as weighed down by China trade data. Latest CFTC data showed that net dollar long dropped to USD 40.27b on April, down from prior week's USD 40.37b. That's the third straight week of mild retreat in dollar longs. Net Euro short dropped from record 226.56k contracts to 215.28k contracts. There were talks that the large number of accumulated dollar longs would be a obstacle for the greenback to extend its up trend. But there are also counter arguments that such up trend would keep going.
Former IMF economist Stephen Jen was quoted saying that there are two factors that could drive the dollar further higher. Firstly, he noted that the world is "structurally short" the greenback and short covering would give dollar continuous push in the years ahead. He noted that dollar denominated debt around the world surged from USD 6T at the end of 2008 to more than USD 9T after fed cut interest rate to near zero. Such debts would need to be repaid in the coming years. Secondly, central banks could start to reverse course and accumulate dollar reserves again. Dollar's share of global reserve tumbled to as low as 60% in 2011 and is back at 63%. That compared to 73% a decade ago.
In China, trade surplus dropped sharply to USD 3.1b in March comparing to expectation of USD 43.4b. exports collapsed and fell -15.0% yoy to USD 144.6b. That compared to market expectation of 12% yoy rise. Imports also dropped sharply by -12.7% yoy to USD 141.5b. That compared to expectation of -11.7% fall. The weakness in the data pointed towards a worse than expected slowdown in the Chinese economy.
In Japan, BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda expressed his confidence over the economic recovery and reiterated that the country is expected to "continue recovering moderately as a trend". Meanwhile, for core inflation, he expected it to "move around zero for the time being" due to falling energy prices. Overall, he also note again that BoJ would adjust policy to achieve 2% inflation target if needed. The minutes for BoJ March 16-17 meeting showed that policy makers were confidence that the aggressive easing policies were having positive effect on the economy. Also released from Japan, M2+CD rose 3.6% yoy in March, domestic CGPI rose 0.3% mom, machine orders dropped -0.4% mom in February.