Dollar Firm Ahead Of NFP, Aussie Tumbles As RBA Slashes Inflation Foreca

Published 05/06/2016, 05:17 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
AUD/USD
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Dollar stays firm in Asian session while stocks are under pressure as markets awaits employment report from US. Economists expect non-farm payroll to show 206k growth in jobs in April. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.00% while average hourly earnings are expected to show 0.3% mom growth. ADP private sector jobs were a disappointment which showed growth slowed to 156k. The employment component of ISM manufacturing improved to 49.2 but stayed below 50. Nonetheless, employment of component of ISM services rose to 53.0. The 4 week moving average of initial claims dropped from 267k to 258k. Consumer confidence dropped from 96.1 to 94.2. Overall the pre-NFP data suggest that the NFP would be solid but possibly unspectacular. Wage growth would likely be the one that moves market.

Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan said that "assuming we get stronger second-quarter data in terms of consumer spending and we continue to make progress on our dual mandate, I will be advocating we take further action in June or July." San Francisco Fed president John Williams said that 2 or 3 rate hike this year would be "reasonable" but "we should stay on our basic strategy of gradually reducing accommodation". On the other hand, Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart said he's "on the fence" regarding a June hike even though it's an open option. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said that the global headwinds that prevented Fed from hiking rates "appear to be waning". But he emphasized that "still, combining actual data from the second half of 2015, the first quarter of 2016, and tracking estimates for the current quarter, the suggestion is that the U.S. is growing below a trend pace of 2 percent." And, he's undecided on the right path for interest rates yet.."

Aussie tumbles in Asian session after RBA slashed inflation forecast all the way through June 2018. By December 2016, RBA projected CPI inflation and underlying inflation to be at 1-2%, down from February's forecast of 2-3%. By December 2017, CPI and underlying inflation are projected to be 1.5-2.5%, down from February's forecast of 2-3%. Growth projections for June 2016 was revised slightly lower were otherwise left unchanged. After the futures, cash futures are indicating higher chance of above 70% for another rate cut in August. Separately, Treasurer Scott Morrison said that Philip Lowe will release Glenn Stevens as RBA governor in September.

Elsewhere, Japan monetary base rose 26.8% yoy in April. Swiss will release foreign currency reserves. Canada will also release job report and Ivey PMI.

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